Although the terrorist attacks on the United States last September had a very large impact on lives, jobs and individual industries, economists are now saying the attacks had little impact on the overall U.S. economy, and perhaps stimulated it in some ways.”There are a variety of things that have affected our economy in the last year,” said Dr. Bill Green, Chair of Economics and International Business. “To isolate the effect of the attacks in the overall economy would be very difficult.”This seems to be the general consensus among most economists today. Reflecting on the recession the U.S. economy has experienced, it has been found that the recession began as much as six months before the Sept. 11 attacks. “Segments of the economy were certainly affected, but others were influenced positively,” Green said.Industries related to travel have taken the biggest hit, with airlines filing for bankruptcy and joining forces just to keep their heads above water. Business travelers have looked for alternatives to flying, such as driving and teleconferencing.The decline in air travel was not only due to Amercans’ fear of another attack, but the inconvenience of increased security measures in airports. Green said he feels that as security measures settle down and become more efficient, airline travel will increase again.The attacks had a definite positive influence on the security industry, public, private and governmental, as Americans clamor for more safety in all areas.Most economists compare the immediate impact of the attacks to that of a huge natural disaster, with most of the effects limited to the New York area. Still, the attacks were significant enough to cause distortion to economic data for the next few months.According to the latest U.S. Department of Labor report, unemployment climbed steadily after the attacks to a high of 6 percent in April 2002. Since April, rates have seen a steady decrease.”There’s simply a reallocation of jobs in the market, and sometimes it takes a while to see this effect,” Green said, adding that unemployment rates are temporary and eventually even out.”During a recession, more jobs are destroyed than are created. This is a transition,” Green said.Some economists are saying that the wave of corporate scandals in the United States will end up having more of an effect on the economy than the attacks did. Investors are holding on to their money, not sure if they can trust corporations to accurately report their profits and losses. “People are just reluctant to invest,” Green said.Some steps have been taken by the government to try to stimulate the economy and get consumers spending again. By lowering interest rates, the Federal Reserve hoped to entice homebuyers, and the ploy seems to be working.In August, the National Association of Realtors reported the sales of existing homes has increased 4.5 percent, while the Commerce Department reported new-home sales increases of 6.7 percent. By cutting the interest rates, more homeowners have also been able to refinance their mortgages and recover some of that money.The majority of economists feel that the U.S. economy is now on a steady, although slow, rise. Just as many factors contributed to this economic recession, a similar group of incentives are slowly spurring the economy back to healthy levels.
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Terrorist attacks impacted overall economy very little
October 9, 2002
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