With early voting over and Tuesday’s primary elections quickly approaching, the race for one of Texas’ U.S. Senate seats is closing in as polls tighten.
Incumbent U.S. Sen. John Cornyn faces a major primary challenge from Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt, who represents the state’s 38th Congressional District.
But with President Donald Trump having yet to endorse any of the candidates, how much influence does MAGA really have on voters, and how much are the candidates relying on Trump’s name?
President of Bearkat College Republicans Drake Serpas said Paxton will be his choice come March 3, despite his rocky history.
“He doesn’t really have a squeaky clean past, but I believe that his record here in Texas as AG is just stellar,” Serpas said. “However, if Trump endorsed Cornyn, I would still not vote for Cornyn. I vote for whoever I think will follow Trump’s policies the most… So I think Ken Paxton would be the best to see his policies through.”
Tamara Waggener, an associate professor in the political science department at SHSU, said a Trump endorsement could swing the election to one candidate over the others.
“President Trump continues to receive a great deal of support among Republican voters in Texas,” Waggener said. “Moreover, polling data suggests that President Trump’s endorsement of a candidate is an important cue for Texas voters.”
Cornyn, a Houston native, has been a U.S. Senator for Texas since 2002. According to Cornyn’s website, his main policies include advocating for higher penalties on undocumented immigrants, limiting asylum, and increased staffing for all border and immigration staff. Cornyn is also a proud MAGA follower, voting with Trump-backed policies “99.3% of the time,” according to his campaign website.
Paxton is making a run at the U.S. Senate after spending years attracting MAGA voters, including by famously suing the Biden administration over 100 times pertaining to his open border policies and Second Amendment stance.
However, Paxton does have some controversy in his track record. On May 27, 2023, in a 121-23 vote, Paxton was impeached by the Texas House of Representatives, making him only the third sitting official impeached in Texas history on counts of bribery, corruption, an affair cover-up, and abuse of power.
The Senate eventually acquitted Paxton on all 16 articles of impeachment, but the impact of the trial and acquittal may not dissuade voters.
The Hobby School of Public Affairs at the University of Houston conducted a statewide survey of likely Texas voters. The study population for the March 2026 Republican primary analysis consisted of 550 likely voters. The results show 38% of likely voters intend to vote for Paxton; 31% for Cornyn; 17% for Hunt and 2% for other candidates, with 12% undecided.
The study also found that no candidate is likely to reach the 50% threshold needed to avoid a runoff, so a May runoff between Paxton and Cornyn may be likely.
“One thing is for certain,” Waggener said. “If President Trump withholds his endorsement during the run-off election, the run-off election is likely to remain very competitive and very expensive for the Republican Party.”
